As we approach the first weekend of 2026 movie releases in May, we’re officially in summer movie season now! Loking ahead to what big movies are on the horizon, there’s a lot of talk about how The Mandalorian And Grogu – the first Star Wars theatrical release in over six years – is going to do at the box office. The current narrative is suggesting it could be one of the season’s disappointments, but hold on… because there’s something kind of crazy happening when you look at it next to the recent performance of the Michael Jackson biopic.
How The Mandalorian & Grogu’s Box Office Tracking Is Looking Right Now
We’re about three weeks away from The Mandalorian And Grogu hitting theaters, and Box Office Pro is projecting that the Star Wars flick may do $100 million domestically in its first weekend while Box Office Theory is being more conservative with a $71 million prediction. Should either of those numbers happen, the movie would be one of the biggest opening weekends of 2026 very close to the other heavy hitters of the year, Michael, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary. Yet somehow, it’s being talked about like Lucasfilm should be hanging their head low.
This has to do with the fact that The Mandalorian And Grogu is tracking closest to Solo: A Star Wars Story’s numbers – which has the record for the lowest grossing live-action Star Wars movie that’s gone to theaters. The movie opened in May 2018 and made $84 million domestically in its opening weekend before finishing at an underwhelming $393 million worldwide haul. It was a glaring moment for Star Wars in recent history because all other titles since The Force Awakens made at least $1 billion.
While I get where everyone’s heads are at, I think it’s worth noting that this is also the first Star Wars movie since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and since Star Wars went to streaming. For the past six and a half years Star Wars fans have been encouraged to turn on their TVs with a Disney+ subscription to see the universe’s latest installments, so maybe a soft, yet healthy launch back to big screens is actually worth cheering. What will make or break this one is if fans embrace it or not, and how it does the weeks after its debut.
Let’s Talk About How It Stacks Up To Michael’s Record-Breaking Numbers
That brings me to Michael. A party was made out of the biopic last weekend when it opened at $97 million domestically because it broke records for a music biopic. But, if we negate the genre or franchise comparisons of it all – Michael was made on a large budget that’s allegedly around $200 million. The Mandalorian And Grogu has reportedly a very similar production budget (likely cheaper than Michael) of $166 million, and it’s a disappointment if it does similar to Michael opening weekend?
Obviously, it’d be better if every Star Wars movie crossed $1 billion like it was speeding at lightspeed into a galaxy far, far away, but Mandalorian And Grogu’s tracking right now is literally on par with one of the big wins of 2026.